ALTERNATIVE ARGUMENTA

By Patricia L Johnson and Richard E Walrath

The $150 billion dollar economic growth package was announced by President Bush on January 24, 2008 after a bipartisan agreement was reached with the leaders of the U.S. House of Representatives.  The plan consists of $100 billion in temporary relief for families, and $50 billion in business incentives.

The plan calls for taxpayers to receive rebates of “up to” $600 for individuals, and “up to” $1,200 for couples.  Anyone eligible for the above, would also be eligible for an additional $300 per child, which sort of gives you the impression that if you’re married and have two kids you’re about to receive “up to” $1,800 from Uncle Sam.

Don’t rush out and spend the money yet!

Whenever this administration uses the words “up to” you can bet your booties you’re going to get less, so how much less?  Department of the Treasury examples follow:

Married with children:

1) Married couple with two children*, earned income of $4,000, no federal income tax paid.

Individual rebate = $600

Child tax credit = $600

TOTAL = $1,200

2) Married couple with two children, earned income in excess of $3,000, AGI = $45,000, federal income tax is $323.

Individual rebate = $600

Child tax credit = $600

TOTAL = $1,200

3) Married couple with two children, AGI = $48,000, federal income tax is $773.

Individual rebate = $773

Child tax credit = $600

TOTAL = $1,373

4) Married couple with two children, AGI = $80,000, federal income tax paid in excess of $1,200.

Individual rebate = $1,200

Child tax credit = $600

TOTAL = $1,800

5) Married couple with two children, AGI = $160,000, federal income tax paid in excess of $1,200.

Individual rebate = $1,200

Child tax credit = $600

Phaseout reduction = ($500) [5% x ($160,000 - $150,000) = $500]

TOTAL = $1,300

*All children referenced in the examples are qualifying children for purposes of the child tax credit.

Looks like you won’t be pulling in $1,800 unless your adjusted gross income is more than $80,000 and you have paid in more than $1,200 in federal income tax.

The current agreement also provides a temporary tax cut for businesses providing them with the opportunity to purchase equipment this year and deduct an additional 50% of the cost in 2008.

Treasury Secretary Paulson says that he hopes the Senate doesn’t meddle with the stimulus package.  He’s afraid that the Senate might put some stimulus into it–like money for food stamps as well as extended unemployment compensation.

The package does not provide assistance in the form of extended unemployment insurance benefits, food stamp money, or spending on infrastructure, but it does provide some assistance for homeowners who are struggling to keep their homes in the current mortgage crisis. 

Will it be enough?

Of course not!

How much worse are economic conditions today than they were when the first Bush tax-cuts went into effect? 

Is there anyone who would disagree that they are much worse today than they were then?

So, why are we talking about a $150 billion stimulus, maybe, when hundreds of billions in tax-cuts were put into effect then?  Granted, most of those Bush tax cuts went to the rich and business, and we see how much benefit they provided to the economy. 

The purpose of the Jobs and Growth Plan of 2003 was to stimulate the economy with the influx of $350 billion dollars.  On a temporary basis it succeeded in providing some stimulus, but in 2003 we weren’t looking at 1.8 million subprime loans getting ready to reset with higher rates over the next two years.

If the situation is far worse today–as it is–how is $150 billion going to solve the problem?

By:  Author and Photographer Unknown

Lessons on Life

There was an Indian Chief who had four sons. He wanted his sons to learn not to judge things too quickly. So he sent them each on a quest.., in turn.., to go and look at a pear tree that was a great distance away.

 The first son went in the Winter, the second in the Spring, the third in Summer and the youngest son in the Fall. 
When they had all gone and come back, he called them together to describe what they had seen.

 The first son said that the tree was ugly, bent, and twisted.
The second son said “no” it was covered with green buds and full of promise.
The third son disagreed; he said it was laden with blossoms that smelled so beautiful.  It was the most graceful thing he had ever seen.
The last son disagreed with all of them; he said it was ripe and drooping with fruit, full of life and fulfillment.

The man then explained to his sons that they were all right, because they had each seen but only one season in the tree’s life.

He told them that you cannot judge a tree, or a person, by only one season, and that the essence of who they are and the pleasure, joy, and love that come from that life can only be measured at the end, when all the seasons are up.
If you give up when it’s Winter, you will miss the promise of your Spring, the beauty of your Summer, the fulfillment of your Fall.

Moral:
Don’t let the pain of one season destroy the joy of all the rest.
Don’t judge life by one difficult season.
Persevere through the difficult patches and better times are sure to come.

Live Simply.
Love Generously.
Care Deeply.
Speak Kindly.
Leave the Rest to God.
Happiness keeps You Sweet,
Trials keep You Strong,
Sorrows keep You Human,
Failures keep You Humble,
Success keeps You Glowing,
But God keeps You Going!

The following pictures are of the same place but taken in different seasons..!

By Richard E Walrath

The Democrats shouldn’t waste time on Bush. Get a bill on his desk as soon as they can without tax-cuts for business and the rich.  That’s the most inefficient means of providing stimulus.  They just pocket the money.  If Bush wants to veto the bill, let him do it.  

He and the Republicans can take the heat in November. 

Food stamps, extended unemployment benefits, and a month’s rent would be good for starters. 

On the McLaughlin Group this past Friday, Monica Crowley said that the last time they gave out refunds some of the people didn’t spend them–they saved them. 

That’s because they started passing them out from the top. 

Try doing it from the bottom this time, and all the money will get spent.

By Patricia L Johnson

The U.S. stock markets were closed Monday in observation of Martin Luther King Jr. Day but that didn’t stop the Dow Jones industrial average futures from dropping 436 points or 3.6%, following the lead of foreign markets.  Japan’s Nikkei 225, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, London’s FTSE-100, German’s DAX 30 and France’s CAC040 all dropped considerably on Monday and Tuesday.

So what happened - what spooked the world markets?

One thing that happened is the Conference Board leading index decreased by 0.2 percent in December.  This is the third month in a row this indicator has decreased, and it has been down four of the past six months.  Of the 10 components in this index, six were negative for the month of December 2007 — not a real good sign.

The FOMC, under the direction of Chairman Ben Bernanke, has already taken adequate measures to date based on market conditions, but the foreign sell off caused an emergency video meeting Monday night and on Tuesday morning the FOMC announced a decrease in the federal funds rate 75 basis points to 3-1/2 percent and a decrease in the discount rate 75 basis point to 4.0 percent and left he door open for further cuts following their scheduled meeting for next week.

President Bush has announced his plans for a stimulus plan to jump-start the economy, but it shouldn’t surprise anyone that Bush’s new stimulus proposal will have little impact on the people in this country that need it most, the poor and the middle class.

Where the Democrats want a plan that provides additional spending for food stamps, extended unemployment and infrastructure projects, Bush has different priorities stated in his weekly radio address:  “This growth package must be built on broad-based tax relief that will directly affect economic growth — not the kind of spending projects that would have little immediate impact on our economy”.

The January 18, 2007 Press Briefing by Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors, Ed Lazear provide us with few details on the plan.

The total package will probably be between $140 to $150 billion, with the biggest portion, perhaps $100 billion benefiting individuals and perhaps $50 billion for business investment incentives.

Secretary Paulson when asked whether or not Social Security recipients might get a one time payment responded:

…”The Christmas season has come and gone. We’re not trying to decorate a Christmas tree here.”

He further stated the proposed stimulus plan:

 ”is focused on broad-based tax relief for those who are paying taxes, and that was the principle he [President Bush] laid out. This is something that has worked well before, has worked in 2001, worked in 2003 — get to consumers, put money in the hands of people, letting them spend it rather than the government spend it.”

The problem with the Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2001 [June 7, 2001] and The Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003 [May 28, 2003] is the outcome.

As Chairman Lazear indicates in the press briefing

“There are two major parts of the economy that we have to deal with: the consumption side, and the investment side. Consumption is important, of course, because it is the major component of GDP; it’s 70 percent of GDP. But in addition to that, investment is extremely important not only because it’s a significant part of GDP, but also because investment is the way that we create demand for labor. And demand for labor means more jobs and more wages, and that’s the reason that we have to focus on that side as well.”

Over the past seven years the stimulus plans put in place by this administration have added a grand total of 6,011,000 jobs to the economy.  That’s 6.0 million in seven years, or little more than 71,000 jobs per month to an economy that needs twice that many jobs added just to keep pace with population growth.  Source:  Bureau of Labor Statistics

The subprime mortgage crisis is the force pulling the economy down and with 1.7 million subprime mortgages scheduled to reset in 2008 and 2009, the maximum $150 billion dollar stimulus plan proposed by the White House may do little to curb recession fears.

What we may be looking at is another “growth” package from 1600 Pennsylvania Ave that grows little more than grass on the White House lawn and may be the very reason why world markets are ringing alarm bells.

By Richard E Walrath

So far, you’d think the subprime mortgage crisis affects only houses in the cheap rent districts.  Not so, the next wave is going to hit homes that look like these.

FDR declared a Bank Holiday until a way could be figured out to keep the banks from going under.  We need a a Home Holiday on mortgage increases for 90 days.

One of the funniest things the media is putting out now is the idea that Willard Romney will benefit from the economic crisis we’re having because he has such extensive business experience. 

Does he have an MBA, too?  Just like Bush?

That will be such a help! 

Why do I refer to him as Willard Romney?  That’s because it’s his first name. 

“Some Simple Emergency Survival Tips” posted on January 20, 2008 contained the following statement in error.

“A pair, or two, of extra socks tucked inside your car will help keep you warm if you get stranded, and you will have a pair handy if your feet get wet and/or cold.”

Please note the following correction:

By Richard E Walrath

No, don’t tuck your socks inside your car. Your car doesn’t care whether it’s warm or not–it has no feelings.  Tuck your extra  pair(s) of socks inside your shirt to keep them warm and dry, and to help keep you warm.

By Richard E Walrath

Survival techniques for emergencies. 

A candle burning in your car if you get stranded will give off enough heat to keep you from freezing to death.  Open the window a little now and then to get some air. 

Keep a bag of newspapers and some matches in your trunk so you can build a fire - this may help somebody find you and will keep you alive until you’re rescued.

A pair, or two, of extra socks tucked inside your car will help keep you warm if you get stranded, and you will have a pair handy if your feet get wet and/or cold.

To survive, you have to make your situation better, not perfect, just better.  That makes you feel better.  Then you find or think of something else you can do to improve your situation.  It helps if you know a few things to start with.

Countries in Europe use hot water to heat their homes.  The water is centrally heated and piped into houses and buildings.  With 400 million people, Europe uses about half the energy the United does with only 300 million people.

Water running into a bathtub provides heat, and once the bathtub gets hot, the heat stays there.  If you’re cold and you start to feel warmer, you feel better right away.

A few techniques for keeping your home heating costs down:

Block drafts - if you cannot afford weather stripping, roll up a towel, blanket or throw rug and place in front of the door.

Dress in layers - the more layers you wear, the warmer you’ll be.  Five layers is about as many as you can wear and still move around.  Outer garment should be some kind of wind breaker, not a sweater.  If you’re going to be outdoors, a sweater won’t keep the wind, snow or rain out.  If you’re indoors, it doesn’t matter so much. But if there is no heat in your house, you’ll feel warmer with an outer garment.  Wear the sweater inside.

Invest in electric blankets - if you have little or no heat, you can still stay warm at night if you have electric blankets.

Open your drapes or blinds to let the sun in during the day. 

Close your unused rooms and shut the heater vent.

By Patricia L Johnson

Beep, beep, beep…

Beep, beep, beep…

Beep, beep, beep…

Over and over again the electronic ballot box rejected Mike’s ballot.  After the 5th rejection the election judge provided him with a new ballot to complete and upon completion we once again heard:

Beep, beep, beep…

Beep, beep, beep…

Beep, beep, beep…

As a former election judge I accompanied Mike to the early polling place this afternoon just to take a look see at what procedures were in place and see how much action our newly implemented early voting was getting.

When the second ballot was rejected I advised the person working with Mike that the screen on the optical scanner should provide him with information on why the ballot wasn’t accepted.  Since the election worker wasn’t familiar with the information indicated on the screen he telephoned the election office to be advised that the machine was telling him the ballot was being placed in the wrong ballot bin.

During an election ballots are coded for each precinct.  The early voting polling location covers several precincts so there were many optical scanning ballot boxes in place.  Even though the election judge told Mike to place his ballot in the second machine, after the machine scanned the ballot it knew it was in the wrong bin and rejected it.

Score - Machine 1 - Human 0

Upon arriving home I was bombarded with newspaper headlines reading “NH Recount Finds Irregularities” - “NH Recount Finds Vote Count Errors” as well as a blog headline that I won’t repeat because that would encourage the nonsense.  As you might guess the blog article is extremely popular and had a count of 179 on Digg. 

What is unfortunate about the blog article is the fact they are claiming huge errors were made by Diebold in counting the votes.

All ballots cast in New Hampshire are paper ballots, with some counted by Diebold Optical Scanning devices.  This is the basically the same technology that is used to scan your ATM card when you go to the bank, scan bar codes on purchases of merchandise in department stores, and the same technology that was used to let the election worker at the precinct know that the ballot was being placed in the wrong bin.

The recount is being done by hand and minor discrepancies found were due to human error.  Some voters didn’t follow instructions properly resulting in improperly marked ballots that could not be read by the scanning devices.  Not much room for error when it comes to optical scanning.

The exception to the minor errors found were in the Manchester Ward 5 where larger errors were found.  Clinton’s total dropped from 683 to 619 and Obama’s total went from 404 to 365.  Other candidates totals dropped as well.  However,  once again, the error was made by a human, not an electronic counting device.

New Hampshire voters may vote for a Vice-Presidential candidate on their ballot and some voters wrote their choice for president in the Vice-Presidential space.  The clerk posting the totals erroneously added in the Vice-Presidential votes to the totals for the Presidential candidates resulting in overcounts.

Humans make errors on a regular basis, machines seldom do.

Score - Machine 2 - Human 0

What is incredible about this whole mess is we have 291 more days until the actual election.

Voting irregularities have made all of us more conscious of what is going on at our polling place, which is good for the country as a whole, but all of us must remember that humans are far more error prone than machines.

According to the New Hampshire WMUR article “Human Error, Not Machine, Found During Recount” hundreds of people have e-mailed New Hampshire Secretary of State, Bill Gardner, calling him a “liar”, calling the election process a “sham” or threatening to have him arrested for “rigging the election”.

Most of the irregularities found in voting tabulations over the past several years have been due to human error of some sort, but you generally don’t hear that because it doesn’t sell newspapers.  What sells newspapers and what gets peoples attention on the Internet are the articles that claim there is a conspiracy going on to steal your vote, or there is some sort of fraud.

This country needs a voting system that is standard from one county to the next, one state to the next, from the Atlantic to the Pacific.  We need election officials that are well trained in procedures and can concentrate their efforts on helping the voter get in and out of the polling place as quickly as possible.

And the one thing we need more than anything else is electronic voting machines that allow the blind, the disabled and the non-English speaking public to vote without assistance.

The reason HAVA passed was due to the extraordinary number of votes that were lost in prior elections. 

Standard voting procedures, standard voting machines and trained personnel limit the number of lost votes.